Who’s That Looming in Tesla’s Rearview Mirror?

Tesla is likely the first automaker that comes to mind when you think of electric vehicles, and with good reason. The company commands 60% of the EV market share for 1Q QTD 2020 (its Model 3 accounts for more than half of that number), and made headlines when it began delivering the new Model Y to U.S. customers ahead of schedule. But other automakers are gaining ground. Interestingly, the car closest to Tesla’s rear bumper is one that was launched a full year before the Model 3.

Those are among the key findings of 7Park Data’s Mid-Quarter 1Q20 Tesla and EV Insight Report based on our experts’ analysis of vehicle sales data between January 1st and February 15th.

Overall, the EV market is growing 32% year-over-year (Y/Y) and 14% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q). Tesla dominates the market, exiting 4Q19 with 80% market share. Its best-seller by far is the Model 3 that was launched in August 2017 and is the least expensive model in Tesla’s lineup. 

Model 3 Time’s the Charm?

The Model 3 accounts for 43% market share, while Tesla’s Model S sedan and Model X crossover account for 8% and 9%, respectively. Tesla reported 92,550 Model 3 deliveries worldwide in 4Q19, including an estimated 47,275 in North America. Using the unadjusted Q/Q growth rate applied to Tesla’s 4Q19 actual deliveries, we project North America unit deliveries to increase in 1Q 2020.


However, the Chevrolet Bolt is making a strong comeback, despite the fact it’s one year older than the Model 3. Indexed sales increased +136% Q/Q, and now accounts for a 19% market share compared to 6% market share in 4Q19 and 11% market share in 1Q19.

Poor Visibility Ahead

The global coronavirus pandemic places a big asterisk next to any expectations that the EV market will sustain its growth through at least the first half of Q120. Tesla on March 23rd shut down its Fremont, California manufacturing plant (although it promises to keep making deliveries), joining nearly every one of the world’s major automakers in their decisions to suspend U.S. operations. 

We will continue tracking and reporting on all segments of the automotive market, including EV, motorcycles and recreational vehicles. To learn more about 7Park Data’s Mid-Quarter 1Q20 Tesla and EV Insight Report, and our reports tracking sales for Harley-Davidson, Polaris, John Deere, and more, please sign up below.

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